Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
